Twelve listed companies, including Makihara, Zhengbang, New Hope and Wen, sold a total of 41.5321 million live pigs from January to October 2020. Facing the last profit window of this pig cycle, Muyuan Shares, New Hope, Zhengbang Technology and other leading pig enterprises have revealed the ambitious sales doubling plan in 2021. Muyuan, Zhengbang, Wenshi and New Hope alone together, the listing target next year will reach 130 million. Listed pig enterprises are trying to grab the largest dividend in the history of pig harvest cycle. The record peak for pig stocks will come in 2021.
1, next year, pig prices have space, pig enterprise product ji grab dividends
As for the pig price, an executive of a pig breeding company said: "The pig price in 2021 should not be lower than 23-25 yuan/kg." Another top pig company executive also said: "Next year pig price around 25 yuan/kg probability is relatively large." The above industry experts judge: "Next year pig price in 22-23 yuan/kg is likely to be large, pessimistic words in about 20 yuan/kg."
Another pig breeding industry expert said that the previous peak of pig cycle price fluctuation is about 20-21 yuan/kg, and the production capacity fluctuation is about 15% lower will support the pig price to reach the peak. According to the comprehensive estimate of the production capacity recovery of 90% next year, combined with the epidemic and sow quality and other influencing factors, the pig price low is more likely to be about 20 yuan/kg.
If the pig price can fluctuate above 20 yuan, the major pig enterprises will gain a lot of profits. Public information shows that the cost of self-breeding and self-rearing of pig enterprises is about 14-18 yuan/kg. In 2021, with the decrease of scale effect and amortization cost, the cost of self-breeding and self-rearing pig will continue to decline, and some enterprises will drop to about 12 yuan/kg.
Makihara, Zhengbang, New Hope, Wen and other 12 listed enterprises, their monthly pig sales briefing shows: in October 2020, the total number of pigs out of the market is 5,596,600, with a year-on-year increase of 103.79% and a month-on-month decline of 1.81%. From January to October in 2020, the above 12 enterprises put out a total of 41.5321 million pigs, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.66%. Giant breeding enterprises pig outage increased year-on-year, does show an increase in supply capacity.
Recently, the pig enterprises have revealed the ambitious 2021 out of the market growth plan, trying to seize the pig cycle dividend. New Hope said in Shenzhen Stock Exchange Interactive trading, in 2021 to sell 25 million head, this year's target is 8 million head; By the end of this year, the production capacity of Muyuan shares will reach 40-50 million head, and the target for this year is 17.5-20 million head. Zhengbang technology in the fourth quarter of this year fattening capacity will reach 25 million head scale, this year's column target median of 10 million; Wen's sales target is 30 million yuan next year and 12 million yuan this year.
That is to say, Makihara, Zhengbang, Wen and New Hope alone together, next year's production target will reach 130 million head. According to the "China Agricultural Outlook Report (2020-2029)" issued by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs in April this year, it is estimated that the production of live pigs in China this year will reach 500 million head, a year-on-year decrease of 7.8%; Next year, the number of listings will reach 630 million, a year-on-year increase of 26 percent, and the share of four companies will reach 20.6 percent.
In addition to capacity expansion, the breeding sow stock, talent reserve and land reserve of Muyuan Stock, New Hope and Zhengbang Technology all correspond to capacity expansion scale.
According to the current average weight of commercial pig heads in the market of 120 kg, if the market scale of 25 million head of New Hope and Zhengbang Technology can be realized, assuming that the pig price center is not less than 20 yuan/kg, the breeding profit is about 3-10 yuan/kg. New hope and Zhengbang science and technology pig breeding plate profit can reach 9 billion to 30 billion yuan.
2, can reproduce sow back 90% recovery
According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the breeding sow stock in October was 39.4 million, an increase of 3.1 percent month on month, which means the breeding sow stock has recovered to about 90 percent of the level at the end of 2017. Under the stimulus of high pig price, the number of breeding sows recovered quickly, but the recovery of sow population quality still takes time.
Data show that in most domestic pig breeding, three types of pure bred pigs are selected to cross to obtain commercial pigs. For example, big white pig is selected as female parent, landrace pig as male parent, and binary sows are obtained after hybridization, and then Duroc boars are crossbred to obtain three-yuan commercial pigs. The offspring produced by systematic hybridization have obvious performance advantages.
However, under the influence of the epidemic, the domestic great-grandparent, grandparent and grandparent pigs were all affected, and the hybrid population was difficult to recover quickly in the short term. In the shortage of dual-breed pigs, high pig price demand stimulation, quite a number of breeding farms, breeding enterprises will have better reproductive performance
Commodity generation of three pigs as two kinds of pigs back to breed.
According to data released by Cofco Futures Research Center in the middle of the year, triple sows account for 45% of the breeding sow herd in China. In addition, according to the survey data of Yongyi Consulting, in July 2019, binary energy complexity accounted for 90%, and three-way energy complexity accounted for 10%. In May 2020, the proportion of binary energy complexity decreased to 53%, and the proportion of three-way energy complexity increased to 47%. A number of pig breeding listed companies and industry experts believe that three sows remain large scale.
It is worth noting that the reproductive performance of triple sows is significantly different from that of binary sows. According to an expert in the breeding industry, the pregnancy rate of three-way backcross sows is 70%, the pregnancy rate of two-way pigs is 90%, and three-way sows di a litter due to unstable reproductive performance, the number of singleton piglets, piglets individual size, dystocia and other problems, the elimination rate of the first birth is about 60%, but the growth performance of two-way pigs is more stable, the elimination rate of the first birth ji is low.
In addition, the number of litters of ternary sows can not be compared with that of binary sows. The number of single litters of binary sows is about 10 (some large enterprises can reach 12), while the number of single litters of ternary sows can reach as little as 10, some even only 4-5.
Under the influence of backcrossing of three-way sows, although the number of breeding sows has recovered 90%, there is still a large space for recovery of reproductive performance, which requires a certain discount for the recovery of pig production capacity in 2021.
In addition, the disturbance of African swine fever will persist, which will also affect the recovery of production capacity. Chen Guanghua, deputy director of the Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, said at the press conference on the economic situation of agriculture and rural areas in the first three quarters of 2020, "The situation of the epidemic situation of African swine fever in China is generally stable, indicating that the regular prevention and control work has achieved phased results. However, it should also be noted that the African swine Fever virus has already been colonized in China, and the contamination area is large, so the situation of spot-like outbreak will remain for a long time.
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